Standard demo guide

Use this demo in a logical learning sequence

Starts immediately in browser with no installs, no API keys, and classroom-safe defaults.

What this demo is about

Browser-based Monte Carlo simulation for valuing a company over a five-year forecast horizon. Students can edit revenue growth, margin, tax, working capital, capex, terminal growth, WACC, simulation count, confidence interval, NPV threshold, and value-creation probability controls.

Learning objectives

  • Explain the main ai/ml decision that Monte Carlo Company Valuation is designed to support.
  • Use Scenario, Current acquisition price / initial investment (₹ crore) to test how different assumptions change the scenario.
  • Interpret 3. Simulation output, 4. Statistical summary in plain language and connect them to an action or conclusion.

Run mode and expectations

  • Supported modes: Browser
  • Starts immediately in browser with no installs, no API keys, and classroom-safe defaults.

Step 1: Inputs

  • `Scenario` changes one part of the scenario; increase or decrease it deliberately and watch how the output shifts.
  • `Current acquisition price / initial investment (₹ crore)` changes one part of the scenario; increase or decrease it deliberately and watch how the output shifts.
  • `Base-year revenue (₹ crore)` changes one part of the scenario; increase or decrease it deliberately and watch how the output shifts.
  • `Mean annual revenue growth (%)` changes one part of the scenario; increase or decrease it deliberately and watch how the output shifts.

Step 2: Decision buttons

  • `Reset defaults` returns the demo to a known starting state so students can begin a fresh comparison.
  • `Run simulation` is the main action that computes, compares, or generates the next result from the current inputs.
  • `Export JSON` saves the current result so learners can document evidence or compare scenarios later.
  • `Export CSV` saves the current result so learners can document evidence or compare scenarios later.

Step 3: Outputs and what to notice

  • `3. Simulation output` should be read as evidence for the decision, not just a display element. Ask what high, low, or changing values imply.
  • `4. Statistical summary` should be read as evidence for the decision, not just a display element. Ask what high, low, or changing values imply.
  • Look for the acquisition price, five-year free-cash-flow path, terminal value, WACC, and NPV distribution
  • Observe how growth volatility, margin volatility, WACC, and terminal growth widen or tighten the valuation range

🤖 AI/ML in Finance • CFO Workshop • Advanced

Monte Carlo Company Valuation

Simulate five-year free cash flows, enterprise value, NPV, probability of value creation, and confidence intervals for a company valuation decision.

Browser-based No API keys Editable assumptions Probability + statistics Attribution: vinallcontact@gmail.com
About Demo AI/ML Course CFO Workshop

📚 Learning Guide

Change the business assumptions, probability controls, and statistical settings. The simulator runs thousands of possible futures and shows whether the acquisition or investment creates value under uncertainty.

1. Company and valuation inputs

2. Monte Carlo and probability controls

The simulator uses browser-only random sampling. No cloud model or API key is called.

Mean enterprise value₹0 crPV of five-year FCF + terminal value
Mean NPV₹0 crMean enterprise value minus acquisition price
P(NPV > threshold)0%Probability of value creation
P(Value > threshold)0%Probability enterprise value exceeds target
Std. deviation₹0 crNPV dispersion across simulations
CV ratio0.00Std. deviation / mean NPV

3. Simulation output

Mean NPV NPV threshold Lower confidence Upper confidence

4. Statistical summary

Mean NPV₹0 cr
Median NPV₹0 cr
P10 / P90 NPV₹0 cr / ₹0 cr
Minimum / Maximum NPV₹0 cr / ₹0 cr
Enterprise value P10 / P90₹0 cr / ₹0 cr

5. Five-year average path

YearRevenueEBITDATaxCapexNWC investmentFree cash flow

6. AI-style interpretation

🔎 What to discuss in class

Ask students to compare mean NPV with probability of positive NPV. A high average valuation can still hide unacceptable downside risk, while a moderate NPV can be attractive if the probability of value creation is high and downside is controlled.